In the following picture, we see 3 different customer interface models based on the mainstream technologies of each decade, and we can easily understand where the sources of conflict might appear among Microsoft, Apple, Facebook and Amazon ...
With the benefit of hindsight the combinations in the above chart might be obvious, yet its value derives in understanding the trends that have been happening recently and the disruption from existing standards that were once considered unbeatable (Intel platform - windows + intel-powered desktop PC). The most important factor should be understanding the evolution of the customer interface, which has been inevitably fueled by the improvements in available technology (Moore's Law, primarily).
The Desktop Era was Microsoft's apotheosis: it had the dream of putting a computer in every home, and appeared to be doing just so. The rapid adoption of dial-up access led in the United States by AOL and the boom of the web portals (Yahoo, AOL, MSN) generated sky-high valuations and a sensation of everlasting growth. The so-called dot-com era ended with the NASDAQ stock crash, yet meant no stop to the long term technology growth trend; merely a cleansing of the weak and speculative.
The Laptop Era, which could also be called the web 2.0 era, was driven by the enormous change of dial-up to broadband. With it came the participatory revolution, where users became producers, blogging night and day and sharing videos from their laptops. Besides the access to new types of media (video and music, which could not be easily consumed with a dial-up connection), the technical leaderships from the desktop area was maintained (Microsoft migrated its wintel strategy to laptops).
The Tablet Era was not marked by any market crisis, but rather pushed by the innovative push of one company alone: Apple and the most productive period of Steve Jobs. The introduction of iPhones and iPads showed the world just how useless feature phones were and how old fashioned laptops and net books seemed. Innovation shifted the leadership from the desktop machines to the mobile world, opening up a universe of innovation. Social media became the ideal partner for mobile devices, forcing a paradigm shift that would dethrone the old and tired king, Microsoft, paving the path for Apple to become the most valuable company of the world.
The most important question is where the market is going next. The answer to that question is based on the many standard wars being waged simultaneously, and involving the forces driving the platform strengths and weaknesses, affected by the user preferences and manufacturer trends. To be continued ...
With the benefit of hindsight the combinations in the above chart might be obvious, yet its value derives in understanding the trends that have been happening recently and the disruption from existing standards that were once considered unbeatable (Intel platform - windows + intel-powered desktop PC). The most important factor should be understanding the evolution of the customer interface, which has been inevitably fueled by the improvements in available technology (Moore's Law, primarily).
The Desktop Era was Microsoft's apotheosis: it had the dream of putting a computer in every home, and appeared to be doing just so. The rapid adoption of dial-up access led in the United States by AOL and the boom of the web portals (Yahoo, AOL, MSN) generated sky-high valuations and a sensation of everlasting growth. The so-called dot-com era ended with the NASDAQ stock crash, yet meant no stop to the long term technology growth trend; merely a cleansing of the weak and speculative.
The Laptop Era, which could also be called the web 2.0 era, was driven by the enormous change of dial-up to broadband. With it came the participatory revolution, where users became producers, blogging night and day and sharing videos from their laptops. Besides the access to new types of media (video and music, which could not be easily consumed with a dial-up connection), the technical leaderships from the desktop area was maintained (Microsoft migrated its wintel strategy to laptops).
The Tablet Era was not marked by any market crisis, but rather pushed by the innovative push of one company alone: Apple and the most productive period of Steve Jobs. The introduction of iPhones and iPads showed the world just how useless feature phones were and how old fashioned laptops and net books seemed. Innovation shifted the leadership from the desktop machines to the mobile world, opening up a universe of innovation. Social media became the ideal partner for mobile devices, forcing a paradigm shift that would dethrone the old and tired king, Microsoft, paving the path for Apple to become the most valuable company of the world.
The most important question is where the market is going next. The answer to that question is based on the many standard wars being waged simultaneously, and involving the forces driving the platform strengths and weaknesses, affected by the user preferences and manufacturer trends. To be continued ...
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