In 2012, Android confirms its leadership in Mobile Operating Systems (Mobile in Focus #2)

As in many high-tech markets, network effects apply very clearly in mobile operating systems.  These effects usually result in a market tipping, that is to say, creating a competitive situation where winner takes all, leaving little space for strong contenders.
The winner before 2008 was clearly Nokia's Symbian, who was busy fending off upstart Apple, who took in 1 year a large chunk of its business.  2009 and 2010 were the years when Android spread like wildfire, reaching a share of 30-40% and becoming #1 mobile Operating System in terms of units.  It is important to mention this (market share of units), because performance differs greatly when we look at market share of sales and profits (refer to this article).  In 2011, Symbian bit the dust, BlackBerry and Windows ceded ground and the battle became a face-off between Apple iOS's integrated hardware and software platform versus Google Android's fragmented licensing approach.

For 2012 and later, estimates are a replay of 2011, with Android controlling over 50% of the shipments and iOS holding on to 25% approximately, and the rest far behind.  Android seems to want to replay the battle that Microsoft fought and won over Apple in the desktop PC market 25 years ago in this new smartphone market. In that case, Microsoft's licensing approach was best fit to a model of explosive growth channeled through OEMs like HP, Compaq, Dell, etc., while in this case, the specifics of the network effects seem to be a bit different.
In the PC market, Apple was unable to generate indirect effects for developers and retailers with a share which shrunk below 5% of the units.  With 25% of the units, in the market of smartphones, Apple seems to be in pretty good shape, generating a larger than proportional customer base (adding iPod and iPad users, and considering the iOS platform as one).  Also, in terms of developer preference (here) and third-party sales (here), Apple is the big winner in the market.  Therefore, it is able to maintain its position as a strong contender to Android, who is, by the way, suffering largely due to platform fragmentation, as seen here:

What is expected of the smartphone market? Analysts speculate that Android and iOS will coexist - maybe not so peacefully - while a new chapter of this fight is fought out in the tablet market ...

2012 is the Year of Mobile Explosion (Mobile in Focus #1)

Last year, and for the first time ever, shipments of smartphones overtook shipments of PCs.  As smartphones become more powerful and mimic most of the PCs processing capabilities, it should be an important fact.  We are slowly migrating from a PC-centric world to a mobile world, embedded with "on-the-go" mobile broadband connections.  It is relevant because it is the new place where the fight for high-tech dominance is taking place, and also because attention is so mucho more difficult to capture than it was 10 years ago in the PC era.

Mobile devices (smartphones, tablets and e-readers) hold roughly 70% of the shipment volume, according to market information from Gartner and IDC.  If we consider that in 2005 we did not even know the term smartphone, it is truly a magnificent feat.  As feature phones disappear and are replaced by smartphones, a world of new services becomes available to the user (via the apps sellers), a domain largely dominated by Apple and its iOS ecosystem with over 600 million active devices.  Android, in spite of representing a large majority of these devices, has followed - as we will see in an upcoming Mobile in Focus post- a fragmented approach which might help it become the market leader in units but not in preference and overall quality.

So just how well are the big guys doing here? In a world dominated by mobile devices, the high-tech giants must strive to conquer this new landscape.  Apple, in this case, sells the most successful and desired smartphone; Google provides the most widely used mobile Operating System (although it is not competing as a manufacturer, but rather as a licensor of the OS), Amazon is quickly adapting its applications to better suit the mobile world and has entered the hardware fight with its Kindle Fire tablet (based on Android OS), and Facebook is pushing to convert as soon as possible as many as possible of its users into mobile users of tools such as Facebook Messenger and Instagram, and it is rumored to be launching a branded phone soon ... the best is yet to come!

iOS: Racing towards 1Bn devices

The tech wars for our attention - and our pockets - have silently begun without our noticing it.  Companies have different strategies based on their relative strengths and overall intent.  Microsoft, for instance, has realized that PCs have become largely commoditized and "corporate" and is aiming to take over our living room using the XBox360, which has sold some 65-75 Mn devices.  Google has chosen to licence its Android OS, in a clear attempt to copy the strategy followed by Microsoft with Windows, and while Amazon aims to sell truly anything, Facebook is going silly trying to be the portal to our lives.
Apple has taken the consumer by storm, invading our lives with over 629 million devices since the launch of its first iPod.  These iOS devices looked innocent at first; a nice MP3 player, a nice phone, etc., but after the iPad's launch it is clear there is no innocence but a crude intent to build an ecosystem fueled by iTunes and its almighty selling powers to take over our lives.  iTunes has sold over 15 billion songs and 25 billion applications at a rate of 24 songs and 40 applications per device, and the iOS cumulative revenue can be estimated north of U$S 250 billion.

The really interesting part is that each new iDevice has outperformed its predecessor - the iPhone, 20 quarters after launch, has sold 3.2x more devices than the iPod.  This means people are more educated on the gadgets and accept them faster.  The iPad, a large bet since Apple was the first-mover in this space, has so far (8 quarters after launch) sold 3.2x more devices than the iPhone and 51x more than the iPod.
At whichever rate the tech wars continue, the iOS installed base continues growing rapidly and the positive feedback loop is already under full steam, generative direct and indirect network effects for users, developers and manufacturers of complementary iOS products.  Competitors will have to find a way for users to trade in their devices - all 600 million + of them - for their own, and win their trust to sell them content and applications.  If someone is up for it, it seems, in the best case, it will take many years to accomplish ... Steve Job's legacy is, for now, well guarded.